Two new publications in Finance for Dr. Urban Ulrych
Congratulations to Dr. Urban Ulrych for his two recent publications: "Dynamic currency hedging with non-Gaussianity and ambiguity" in the journal Quantitative Finance and "Portfolio Construction with Hierarchical Momentum" in The Journal of Portfolio Management.
Dynamic currency hedging with non-Gaussianity and ambiguity
This paper introduces a non-Gaussian dynamic currency hedging strategy for globally diversified investors with ambiguity. It provides theoretical and empirical evidence that, under the stylized fact of non-Gaussianity of financial returns and for a given optimal portfolio, the investor-specific ambiguity can be estimated from historical asset returns without the need for additional exogenous information. Acknowledging non-Gaussianity, we compute an optimal ambiguity-adjusted mean-variance (dynamic) currency allocation. Next, we propose an extended filtered historical simulation that combines Monte Carlo simulation based on volatility clustering patterns with the semi-parametric non-normal return distribution from historical data. This simulation allows us to incorporate investor's ambiguity into a dynamic currency hedging strategy algorithm that can numerically optimize an arbitrary risk measure, such as the expected shortfall. The out-of-sample backtest demonstrates that, for globally diversified investors, the derived non-Gaussian dynamic currency hedging strategy is stable, robust, and highly risk reductive. It outperforms the benchmarks of constant hedging as well as static/dynamic hedging approaches with Gaussianity in terms of lower maximum drawdown and higher Sharpe and Sortino ratios, net of transaction costs.
Portfolio Construction with Hierarchical Momentum
This article presents a portfolio construction approach that combines the hierarchical clustering of a large asset universe with the stock price momentum. On one hand, investing in high-momentum stocks enhances returns by capturing the momentum premium. On the other hand, hierarchical clustering of a high-dimensional asset universe ensures sparse diversification, stabilizes the portfolio across economic regimes, and mitigates the problem of increased drawdowns typically present in momentum portfolios. Moreover, the proposed portfolio construction approach avoids the covariance matrix inversion. An out-of-sample backtest on a non-survivorship-biased dataset of international stocks shows that, compared to the model-based and model-free benchmarks, hierarchical momentum portfolios achieve improved cumulative and risk-adjusted portfolio returns as well as decreased portfolio drawdowns net of transaction costs. The study further suggests that the unique characteristics of the hierarchical momentum portfolios arise because of both dimensionality reduction via clustering and momentum-based stock selection.