How can we get China and India to accept serious climate mitigation?
01.08.09 - The FP6 project TOCSIN, directed by the Economics and Environmental Management Laboratory (REME), evaluated climate change mitigation options in China and India. In particular, it investigated the strategic dimensions of cooperation in research, development and tech transfer, and the challenge of creating incentives to encourage developing countries to participate in post-2012 greenhouse gas emissions reductions.
Simulations with a hybrid bottom-up/top-down model showed that increased energy R&D spending alone is not sufficient to meet a 3.5W/m2 radiative forcing target, as it provides no direct incentive for adopting new technologies and focuses on the longer term, missing near-term opportunities for cost-effective emissions reductions. A global carbon price signal would be a more effective incentive. Our simulations based on gaming logic showed that self-enforcing climate agreements can be reached with allocations of emission rights that can be traded between developing, newly industrialised and industrialised countries.