Housing could improve our well-being and reach net-zero by 2040

In Nick’s scenario, by 2040 we’ll be living in neighborhoods where all buildings have been renovated to provide optimal temperature, lighting and noise conditions and to offer a variety of shared spaces. All the services and amenities we need will be within walking distance, and there will be more vegetation and biodiversity. All this will help to drastically reduce urban sprawl. “Our scenario calls for concrete changes that are radical but also necessary,” says Nick, a scientist at EPFL’s Laboratory of Environmental and Urban Economics, within the School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering (ENAC). A physicist and economist by training, today Nick specializes in societal transition pathways. His novel vision for the future of Swiss housing incorporates key aspects of community life and is consistent with Switzerland’s climate targets for 2050. His study, published in Frontiers in Sustainability, was carried out as part of the SWEET SWICE research program funded by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy to promote individual and collective well-being in the energy transition.

To develop his scenario, Nick combined computer modeling with a systems analysis, accounting for system limits. He considered all existing buildings in Switzerland and how residents move between them, such as for taking children to daycare or getting to work. The study doesn’t factor in vacation travel or people living on farms, who account for 2% of the country’s population.

Renovate rather than build
In his study, Nick spells out four recommendations. The first is to renovate buildings instead of tearing them down and building new ones. “Knocking down and rebuilding takes longer, is an environmental nightmare and disfigures our architectural heritage,” he says. “There are currently 2.5 million buildings in Switzerland, and we need to live with them.” Only around 0.8% of those buildings are renovated each year. “At this rate, it’ll take 125 years to renovate our entire building stock. A radical idea was put forward by EPFL Professor Charlotte Malterre-Barthes – a Moratorium on New Construction. In Switzerland, if this is applied and combined, as I suggest, with a renovation rate of 5-6% per year, we could upgrade all our buildings in less than 20 years, entirely relying on our existing workforce of qualified construction professionals.” The renovations would consist mainly of energy-efficiency improvements such as installing better insulation and switching to heating systems powered by renewable energy. That would be a quick and easy way to eliminate the need for fossil fuels – boosting Switzerland’s energy resilience in the process. “Our scenario draws on existing resources and would be low risk. But it requires us to think differently,” says Nick.

By shrinking the per capita surface area from 76 m2 to 35 m2 by 2040, we can double Switzerland’s residential capacity without having to build any new buildings. Even if the country’s population reaches 14 million by 2100, we could still provide high-quality housing for everyone. What’s more, average rents would be reduced by a factor of two, which would go a long way towards reducing inequality.

The second recommendation is to make better use of buildings’ surface area. “Today, each person in Switzerland occupies a total of 76 m² of heated space, including homes, offices and public buildings,” says Nick. He’d like to see that figure cut in half, by using more shared spaces. For example, co-living arrangements could be encouraged, whereby each person has their own bedroom and bathroom in a building with a Class A energy-efficiency label. The other rooms would be shared, similar to the approach used by college roommates. “By shrinking the per capita surface area from 76 m² to 35 m² by 2040, we can double Switzerland’s residential capacity without having to build any new buildings,” says Nick. “Even if the country’s population reaches 14 million by 2100, we could still provide high-quality housing for everyone. What’s more, average rents would be reduced by a factor of two, which would go a long way towards reducing inequality.”

Positive impact on well-being
Nick’s third recommendation concerns changes at the neighborhood level. He believes neighborhoods should be designed so that everything people generally need – medical centers, shops, daycare facilities, co-working spaces and so on – are located within a 5–8-minute walk. These neighborhoods would be car-free and would house 2,000–4,000 residents. Such a design would also improve residents’ well-being. “Studies have shown that people feel happier as they share more,” says Nick.

The fourth recommendation is to reduce urban sprawl. The approach advocated by Nick would reverse urban sprawl to levels seen in 1935, or even 1885 depending on choices made by democratically by city residents. Some 25% of buildings would no longer be needed. In areas that aren’t suited for the kind of neighborhood Nick envisages, he suggests deconstructing some of the buildings and reusing the materials as much as possible. This would create space for parks and vegetation that can be planned out collectively.

“My goal with this scenario is to steer the debate towards solutions that can both improve our quality of life and move Switzerland towards its climate targets,” says Nick.