Nicolas Fülleman receives the Luce Grivat Award

Abstract
The recent exponential development of shale gas activities observed in the United States has been beneficial in terms of gas prices and energy security. Many countries holding potentially important shale gas resources may thus be tempted to follow the American example. However, besides positive effects, the development of shale gas activities also comes with numerous risks and potentially negative impacts both on the environment and the human health. Particularly, the hydraulic fracturing process used in shale gas extraction is source of concerns and fears, especially for local populations living close to well sites. Such concerns are among others related to risks of water and soil contamination due to chemicals used in fracturing operations, air pollution problems due to emissions produced at the well site, or seismicity induced by shale gas activities. Moreover, while this resource has been presented by many as a transition fuel towards sustainable energy sources and as a real opportunity in order to progressively replace more carbon intensive energy sources by less carbon intensive ones, some scientists have recently argued that over its whole life cycle, shale gas could be even worse than coal in terms of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions.

During his Master Thesis in Poland at the University of Lodz, Nicolas Füllemann studied the shale gas extraction issue and more specifically its related potential environmental impacts based on a life cycle analysis approach. Since Poland currently plays the most active and advanced role in the European shale gas exploration process, it has been chosen as the reference location in order to evaluate the different impacts and issues. Shale gas being politically and scientifically a very sensitive issue, Nicolas faced during his Master thesis the growing polemic existing around this resource. Being strongly debated in the scientific community, the GHG emissions issue has been addressed using a specific methodological approach based on a Monte Carlo simulation. The method proposed in his study allows estimating the importance of the uncertainties related to the different hypotheses necessary to carry such a study and highlights the important elements to consider in the evaluation of this technology. Results of his study show that when considering heat production as a final use, shale gas life cycle GHG emissions are 28% larger than those of coal over a 20 year time frame but 14% smaller over a 100 year time frame. When considering electricity generation, shale gas life cycle GHG emissions are identical to those of coal over a 20 year time frame and 33% smaller over a 100 year time frame. While results of his study indicate that, in terms of GHG emissions, shale gas is not necessary as good as generally presented, different mitigation measures allow significantly reducing shale gas GHG emissions. Most of risks and impacts considered in his study can also be strongly reduced if adequate mitigation measures and precautions are taken. Currently, the largest problem in the assessment of risks related to shale gas activities consists in the current paucity of reliable information. Large uncertainties are therefore still involved in any estimation of risks related to shale gas extraction. Many more scientific studies are therefore urgently needed in order to ensure that the development of such activities will be done in best possible conditions. In the meantime, the biggest risk would be to not accept our current ignorance and a precautionary approach should therefore be adopted in the development of shale gas activities.

Poster Link: http://mediatheque.epfl.ch/enac/modules.php?include=view_photo.php&file=index&name=gallery&op=modload&id=F_llemann&set_albumName=albun00&full=1
Paper Link: http://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/182342