Computer-Aided Disease Control
© 2013 EPFL
The outbreak of cholera that followed the January 2010 earthquake in Haiti demonstrated the difficulty in predicting the progression of this often fatal disease and in optimally allocating the resources available to fight it.
Professor Andrea Rinaldo and his co-workers have developed a numerical model to simulate the disease’s spatial evolution. Their model, which was validated against a past cholera epidemic, simulates both major mechanisms of diffusion of the waterborne disease: along river networks and via the mobility of infected human carriers. Supplemented by knowledge gained on site in Haiti, their studies offered predictions on the spread of the epidemic and provided a means to test the effectiveness of various intervention strategies. It was found that, at an advanced stage of the epidemic, providing clean drinking water and education campaigns aiming to reduce exposure to the pathogens would have the greater impact in slowing the progression of the disease than mounting a large scale vaccination campaign.