Build it and they will come

Ninety-seven percent of Americans commute by car. In Switzerland, the number is smaller, at 60%, but it’s still alarming: with aging infrastructures, global warming, and diminishing fossil fuel reserves these kinds of habits are clearly unsustainable. But what is the solution? Will people decide to live closer to where they work? Will they use public transport? Will everyone eventually telecommute? The most important thing Vincent Kaufmann, head of EN AC’s Urban Sociology Laboratory (LASUR ), has learned in his years investigating these issues is that our assumptions about what drives human behavior are usually wrong. It doesn’t make sense to spend vast sums of money revamping public transportation systems if we don’t even understand people’s behavior enough to predict how they’ll use them. He gives an example: you’d think that to get people out of their cars, all you need to do is provide an equally rapid transportation alternative. It turns out that this is only one of many factors involved in the decision – and not even the most important one.

One of LASUR ’s current projects is a good illustration of this. The Post Office has commissioned Kaufmann to conduct a user survey that will help it optimize Postbus service in the Pied de Jura region. (The legendary Postbus system – considered almost a basic amenity, like water and electricity, in Switzerland – makes it possible to get to almost any village in the country.) To conduct the survey, Kaufmann first did a basic behavioral study, using a GPS system to track the travel habits of a group of people living in the region. He found a basic duality in their travel habits; some people regularly took the same route to the same destination every day (actual or potential Postbus riders), whereas others’ travel patterns were completely unpredictable (not potential Postbus riders). The investigation allowed him to develop a questionnaire that was then given to a larger population.

Kaufmann’s group ran a mathematical model based on the results, and found that when there are more than thirteen buses stopping at a given Postbus stop every day, people will opt to take the bus. “Under that threshold, people stick to their cars,” he explains. Based on this evidence, he argues that it would be more useful for the Postbus to consolidate its line and provide more frequent service in a reduced network, than to send buses out to every little hamlet in the countryside. Kaufmann’s next challenge is to help the Post Office determine which of the existing routes should be further developed, and which let go.

The study highlights a pattern that has become familiar to Kaufmann: despite a job market that demands increasing flexibility on the part of employees, people are very reluctant to change their lifestyles. “Contrary to popular belief, the Swiss aren’t very mobile,” he says. “We often confuse mobility with travel. It’s not the same thing.” People are willing to commute long distances to a new job, but very unwilling to move out of their established communities or change ingrained habits. Providing fast, efficient, cheap public transportation is not necessarily a good thing, he says, because it will just reinforce this mindset, and the environment will pay the price. Remember, trains and buses use fuel too; driving 4 km in a car is actually much less polluting than riding 300km in a train. Think about that as you calculate the carbon footprint of your next commute…