Can global warming be limited to 2°C?
In the frantic race to try to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, scientists at EPFL are taking part in a new European project. They will evaluate various global warming scenarios, calculating the impact of climate change on the economy, agriculture and hydrology, and propose adaptations that would enable us to cope with this impact. The challenge at a European and worldwide level is to limit global warming to 2°C by the end of the century.
Starting in January 2011, scientists from EPFL’s Economics and Environmental
Management Laboratory (REME) will be collaborating with universities and institutes
in four European countries – the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain and Switzerland
– on the “Ermitage” research project. This is an opportunity for EPFL scientists to
provide the European consortium with a modeling tool developed by Marc Vielle,GEMINI E3, that
incorporates an economic perspective. “Using this tool, we can show the evolution
of fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions up to the year 2050,” he
explains. Switzerland is of course included in this model, which covers 28 regions. “We
are trying to calculate the impact that the various strategies for combating climate
change will have on lifestyle and well-being, and studying various options for adapting
to climate change.”
In this new project, REME will look at the economic consequences of measures taken
to slow down climate change. What is the cost of climate change, and what are the
possible ways in which we can adapt? “In Switzerland, for example, climate change is
already affecting winter tourism. What approach should we adopt in response to this?
In the agricultural sector, how should farming practices be adapted? The insulation of
buildings is also an important issue,” adds Vielle. “It’s stimulating to work on projects
with an international scope, particularly when we can use applied research to propose
solutions to decision-makers.” The objective of this three-year project is to use and
combine the models created by the different teams to evaluate climate-related
strategies, and ultimately to attain the objective of limiting the increase in global
temperature to 2°C.
How will international climate strategies evolve? How should we manage the post-
Kyoto period? What political strategies should be put in place in 2012?
To tackle this project, Ronal Gainza Carmenates drew upon research done in a
REME project focusing on two big countries with rapid economic growth, India and
China. He recently completed his PhD thesis on measures to bring these and other
emerging G20 countries, such as South Africa, Mexico, South Korea and Brazil, on
board in the process of reducing greenhouse gases. “I interviewed 149 people from 48
countries participating in climate-related discussions. I concentrated on 13 academic
propositions concerning this issue, and created a model for studying multilateral
climate-based discussions between industrialized and developing countries.” The
results of his study point to three potentially interesting economic avenues:
• Transferring the most energy-efficient technologies from industrialized
countries to emerging countries.
• Introducing a policy of GHG reduction based mainly on economic growth.
• Establishing a system to enable progressive integration of emerging countries in
an agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, as a function of their level
of economic development and their share of global emissions.
“Each country must adapt its climate-related strategies to its situation. There is no
single response or miracle solution, and there is always a dilemma between what’s
ideal and what’s feasible. On the other hand, the costs and benefits associated
with climate change are difficult to quantify with certainty in advance. In order
for industrialized countries to be able to provide financial support to emerging
countries, neutral, reliable and independent monitoring institutions will have to be
put in place,” Carmenates concludes.